|Publication Date||March 2009|
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â€œFinally. A model for predicting the price fall of generics â€“ proven to have worked for 99% of drugsâ€
It has long been recognised that prices paid by chemists and doctors for a generic product decline in the weeks and months after generic launch and patent expiry. But calculating how quickly this happens can often only be guessed at - until now
How to Forecast Generic Pharmaceutical Prices - A practical method to estimate future generic product prices is a unique guide that will help you be able to forecast future generic prices before and after launch.
Specifically designed to be instantly usable, this publication, presents a tried and tested methodology to predict how the price of a generic medicine will fall after patent expiry and launch.
The practical guide, which is produced by URCH Publishing in association with WaveData, a medical price analysis company, will allow users to build spreadsheets and forecast products prices as required.
The model presented is based on solid methodology drawing from over 6 year's work (over 60,000 hours) cataloguing 6 million pharmaceutical prices. A 120 real-life examples of generic product were studied to find patterns of price decay.
The model takes into account both regional drug reimbursement policies and the brand value of the product.
20 tables provide detailed percentage points according to the number of generic licence holders entering the marketplace post patent-expiry.
The model works in the absence of government price capping, where the price decay happens as a result of competition between suppliers (free pricing) rather than statuary price reductions, and the reimbursement price is high enough to allow free pricing.
This unique guide is a must have for all:
4. Background to the study
6. A Step By Step Guide to Forecasting the Decline in a Generic Drug Price 10 7.
Appendix 1. Calculation Tables According to Number of Generic Licence Holders 20
Appendix 2. Sterling (£) exchange rates 1 June 2006 40 References
List of Figures Figure
Figure 1. Generic Price Decay
Figure 2. Variations in Price Decay of Generics (Time vs. Percentage Fall)
Figure 3. D Factor used in calculations
Figure 4. Reduction in forecast value due to various D factors
Figure 5. Generic Prescribing in the UK, 1996-2006
Figure 6. D Factor used in calculations
Figure 7. Enter reimbursement price in Spreadsheet
Figure 8. Reimbursement price for 36 months
Figure 9. Estimate number of licence holders
Figure 10. Enter number of generic competitors over 36 months
Figure 11. Find appropriate calculation table
Figure 12. Number of generic licence holders may vary
Figure 13. Find 36 monthly values
Figure 14. Calculate the % of original reimbursement price
Figure 15. Calculate the % of original price each month
Figure 16. Multiply forecast by % of reimbursement price
Figure 17. Final Generic Forecast 18