06 June 2007
Patent expiries threaten $22bn of CNS drug sales
GSK and J&J's products likely to be hardest hit by generics predicts URCH report.
URCH Publishing, LONDON: Just three of the 13 patented drugs that dominated the global market for central nervous System (CNS) treatments in 2005 will be free from generic competition in 2010, concludes a new report on the CNS pharmaceutical market.
In 2005 there were 13 CNS drugs with sales of more than $1bn a year - known as blockbusters - by the end of 2010, sales of all but three of these therapies will be struggling against generic rivals, says CNS Market Trends 2007 to 2010 - Key market forecasts and growth opportunities from URCH Publishing.
In total, drugs accounting for 39.8% of total CNS sales in 2005 will lose patent protection by the end of 2010, followed by drugs accounting for a further 19.5% of 2005 sales losing patent protection by the end of 2015. Hardest hit by patent expiries over the next four years are the CNS portfolios of Johnson & Johnson and GlaxoSmithKline, who will each face generic competition for three of their leading CNS drugs.
The 125 page report finds that the products hardest hit by generic competition will be Pfizer's anti-depressant Zoloft and Wyeth's serotonin-norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor Effexor. Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor Zoloft, generated global sales of US$3.3 billion in 2005, while Effexor, generated sales of US$3.5 billion. However, generic competition following patent expiries in June 2006 for Zoloft and June 2008 for Effexor will erode sales of US$2.8 billion and US$2.3 billion respectively by 2010.
"As a result of significant generic competition the global anti-depressants market is set to decline between 2005 and 2010," commented the report's author Steve Seget. "However, with the patent estates for lead drugs, Zyprexa and Risperdal protecting against generic competition beyond 2010, the anti-psychotics drug class is set to overtake the anti-depressants drug class and become the leading contributor to global CNS sales in 2010, he added.
The 130 page 'Competition 2007 to 2011' uses detailed regulatory and company source information to provide a concise over of the effect of patent expiries on over 50 major selling pharmaceuticals including, Advair, Gemzar, Risperdal and Zyrtec.
