05 June 2007
CNS Drug Market Set for Shake Up
GSK to Climb and J&J Fall in Top 10 list
New research suggests that while five of the top ten companies- AstraZeneca, Forest, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Sanofi-Aventis and Wyeth- are forecast to grow their Central Nervous System (CNS ) sales over the next five years, three other leading companies will see a decline in this sector.
The report CNS Market Trends, 2007-2010 - Key market forecasts and growth opportunities identifies the three as Johnson & Johnson (J&J), Novartis and Abbott. In fact, J&J which was the leading company by CNS sales in 2005 with sales of US$9.0 billion, is predicted to plummet to fifth place in 2010. In contrast GSK is forecast to climb rapidly upwards from fourth place in the top 10 CNS company list to become the leading CNS player.
The global market for drugs treating (CNS) disorders has grown rapidly in recent years to reach US$55.5 billion in 2005, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. Author of the report Steven Seget says, “15 pharmaceutical companies have been identified as having generated CNS sales in excess of US$1 billion in 2005.”
Leading CNS products threatened by Generic competition
Several of the top-selling CNS drugs are likely to lose patent protection in the next three years enabling generics to flood the market and erode the sales figures of pharma companies. The CNS portfolios of J&J and GSK, are particularly vulnerable as each will each face generic competition for three of their leading CNS drugs.Also in the line of generics attack are Pfizer’s anti-depressant Zoloft and Wyeth’s serotonin-norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor Effexor. Zoloft, saw global sales of US$3.3 billion in 2005, while Effexor raked in sales of US$3.5 billion. However, with the former drug’s patent set to expire in in June 2006 and the latter’s in June 2008, both face strong competition from generics. The report predicts that sales will erode for Zoloft by US$2.8 billion and for Effexor by US$2.3 billion by 2010.
The global CNS market is forecast to expand to US$63.9 billion in 2010 but growth will be limited by maturing markets in depression and epilepsy and continued patent expiries for major products.
Antidepressants dominate the market, but Anti-psychotics will overtake
The global market for CNS-related pharmaceuticals was dominated by the anti-depressant drug class with a market share of more than 30%. However, Seget points out that with several blockbusters facing generics competition in this class of drugs this scenario is likely to change. He asserts that anti-psychotics will soon be the dominant class. “With the patent estates for lead drugs, Zyprexa and Risperdal being proteced against generic competition beyond 2010, the anti-psychotics drug class is set to overtake the anti-depressants drug class and become the leading contributor to global CNS sales in 2010,” he said.
